|
|
Microsimulation model of population for estimation of future housing demand in Prague
Pinlová, Adriana ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Šťastná, Lenka (referee)
The aim of this thesis was to create and implement a microsimulation model which will be able to estimate the future size and age structure of the population of Prague, thus contributing to the discussion on the topic of unavailability of housing. The created model is based on the historical development of mortality, fertility and migration in the area. Age-specific mortality and fertility rates were obtained using the Lee-Carter model. As a result of the microsimulation, it is apparent that in the next twenty years the population will clearly grow, which is due to the expected positive net migration rate. At the same time, the model assumes that in terms of the total number of inhabitants of Prague, the growth rate does not accelerate or slow down. If the volume of construction from the past twenty years is maintained, there will be no increase in the unavailability of housing due to population growth. 1
|
|
|
Reverse mortgage
Korotkov, Daniil ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
ČSOB Pojišťovna, a. s., člen holdingu ČSOB Veřejné 1 / 1 20.7.2018 Abstract: At this moment, reverse mortgages are relatively new products on the Czech market and this thesis deals with their problematics. In this thesis, we describe the main risks related to reverse mortgages, namely, longevity risk and adverse evolution of property prices. Analyzing these risks we are modelling the underlying property prices, their future behavior, discount factors along with studying the risk models such as vector autoregression, hedonic model, repeat-sales and Wills-Sherris model. In practical part, we focus on estimating the parameters of Lee-Carter model and autoregression model of zero-coupon government bond as well as applying the results of the estimation to calculate various characteristics of reverse mortgages.
|
|
|
Selected Methodical Approaches to Regional Population Forecast: A case study in the South Bohemian Region
Říha, Vojtěch ; Hulíková Tesárková, Klára (advisor) ; Habartová, Pavlína (referee)
Selected Methodical Approaches to Regional Population Forecast: A case study in the South Bohemian Region Abstract The aim of this thesis is to introduce selected methodological approaches to population forecasts, focusing on the regional level and considering different lengths of time series. Specific procedures are applied to create a population forecast for the South Bohemian Region. In the theoretical part of this thesis, the stages of population forecasts processing are determined. The Cohort Component method with migration, which can be used to create population forecast, is characterized. Another part describes selected analytical models and functions for partial mortality, fertility and migration forecasts, including Indirect estimation of net migration. To extrapolate parameters, selected trending functions and the Box-Jenkins methodology are characterized in the part of the time series analysis. The analytical part of this thesis focuses on the creation of the South Bohemian Region forecast from short initial time series and long initial time series. From short initial time series, the partial forecast of mortality is analyzed by the Heligman-Pollard model, the partial forecast of fertility is analyzed by the Beta function and the partial forecast of migration is analyzed by 25%, 50% and 75%...
|
|
|
Stochastic modelling of mortality development
Škerlík, Peter ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Branda, Martin (referee)
In the presented diploma thesis we study possibilities of forecasting mortality rates and we explain the most used models to measure it. The longevity and mortality risk are characterized and options for transfer of risks to other subjects are suggested. Further we applied LifeMetrics tool to predict mortality and quantify longevity risk in our data set, also possibilities of its usage are described in more details. The aim of the work is to provide the reader with sufficient amount of theoretical information about the used stochastic models for mortality prediction. Also the work may be helpful to gain deeper knowledge about longevity risk.
|
|
|
Methods for mortality forecasting and longevity risk
Počerová, Veronika ; Branda, Martin (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to analyse different mortality models regarding the longevity risk. We focus on the well-known stochastic models (Lee-Carter model, Age-period-cohort model by Renshaw and Haberman, Cairns-Blake-Dowd two-factor model) and compare them with relatively new Taiwanese model by Yang, Yue and Huang which is based on principal component analysis. Both the theoretical and also the empirical parts are included. Empirical part evaluates all the models mentioned above on the Czech mortality data from 1970-2000 for individuals aged between 50-100 years. Final mortality predictions are made for next 30 years.
|
guest ::
